Presidents are expected to perform well in their State of the Union addresses. As he discusses his achievements and future plans, the president has the nation’s full attention. President Joe Biden will undoubtedly carry out those tasks on Tuesday night, but he has a difficult assignment ahead of him.
As the 2024 primary season gets underway, Biden’s poll numbers (both in terms of his approval rating and his prospects) remain dismal.
In the past five days, three surveys on Americans’ opinions of Biden’s performance as president have been released, and they all essentially express the same unfavorable sentiment. Biden’s popularity rating is in the low to mid-40s and his disapproval rating is in the mid to high 50s, according to polls from ABC News/Washington Post, AP-NORC, and CBS News/YouGov.
In the most recent surveys that are credible and acceptable for publication, Biden’s disapproval rate remains higher than his approval rating.
Since the end of the summer of 2021, only a few months into his presidency, Biden has actually had a negative net popularity rating (approve – disapprove). In that time, over a year and a half, more people disapproved of Biden’s presidency than approved of it.
Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump, was the only other president to have a low net approval rating for so long at the beginning of his administration.
The good news for Biden is that it doesn’t appear as though his approval rating is declining. For most of December and into January, Biden’s approval rating appeared to be steadily increasing. Following the discovery of secret documents at his Wilmington, Delaware home and a Washington, DC, office he utilized after serving as vice president, it eventually fell. It now appears to be slightly up once more.
Furthermore, Biden’s support base appears to be standing behind him. His support among Democrats is in the 80s in almost every poll.
When a president’s support rating within his own party was greater than 75%, he or she never faced a serious contest for reelection.
However, there are additional warning indicators that come before 2024 that are hardly positive. Even though the majority of Democrats approve of the work Biden is doing as president, they are not yet prepared to endorse him as their nominee for the upcoming election.
Less than 50% of Democrats, according to the majority of surveys, want Biden to be renominated. Even while he is under 50%, he does have a nationwide leader in the few surveys that compare him to other Democrats. The last president to find himself in such a predicament was Jimmy Carter in 1979, which ultimately led to him having to contend with Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts for the Democratic nomination.
Should he decide to run, the main factor that will likely make Biden the Democratic nominee in 2024 is the lack of a credible opponent.
However, Biden will face rivals in the general election, and at the moment, Biden isn’t doing great in polls of those potential contests.
Trump received 48% of the vote versus Biden’s 45% in an ABC News/Washington Post poll. Given the polling during the 2020 campaign, even though the outcome is within the margin of error, it is noteworthy.
In no survey conducted in 2019 or 2020 that was acceptable for publishing, more people chose Trump over Biden as the country’s next leader. The ABC News/Washington Post poll is one of several that already places Trump ahead of Biden in the general election in 2024.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is the other contender most likely to run against Biden in the general election of 2024. In a poll conducted by Marquette University Law School last month, DeSantis led Biden by seven points.
The going will be tough for Biden.
The crucial question now is whether Biden’s numbers can be altered in any way.
It’s highly unlikely that a single speech, like the one Biden will deliver today, will have that impact.
The state of the economy has the potential to impact Biden’s circumstances.
After experiencing unusually high inflation for a large portion of 2022, inflation has actually decreased over the last few months. Furthermore, gas costs aren’t nearly as high as they were in the middle of last year.
Biden’s approval rating is higher than it was a few months ago, which could be attributed in part to the fact that Americans are using less petrol and that living expenses aren’t rising. If that keeps happening, perhaps the president will recover from his funk.
The fact that the 2024 cycle is still in its infancy is the only thing we can say with certainty. There is still plenty of time for Biden’s situation to improve or deteriorate.